What is the Financial Health of Your Business?

What is the financial health of your company?

Knowing the financial condition of your business is extremely important. Fortunately, there is an easy, efficient and reliable way to monitor the fiscal health of your company.

It’s called the Z Score.

The Z Score was developed in 1968 by NYU Professor Edward Altman.  Professor Altman originally intended the Z Score to be a predictor of a Company’s inclination for bankruptcy.

The Z Score for privately held companies consists of 5 performance ratios that are combined into a single score.  The five ratios are weighted using the following formula:

Z  Score = .717A +.847B + 3.107C + .420D + .998E

 

Where:

A = Working Capital/Total Assets

B = Retained Earnings/Total Assets

C = Operating Income/Total Assets

D = Book Value of Equity/Total Liabilities

E = Sales/Total Assets

When analyzing the Z Score, the lower the value, the higher the likelihood of bankruptcy.  The following parameters can help in assessing your company’s position:

Below 1.2 indicates a firm headed for bankruptcy

Between 1.2 and 2.9 is a “gray area”

Above 2.9 indicates bankruptcy is unlikely

Caution: While the above parameters are helpful, my experience has been that individual Companies tend to gravitate toward their own  Z Score and changes can be subtle.  Be very mindful of the trend and take action when the trend goes down.

The importance of analyzing the Z Score trend is highlighted in the case of Borders  Bookstores.  Borders Z Score for the 5 years immediately preceding their bankruptcy follow:

Year                                                                    Z Score

2006                                                                       2.81

2007                                                                       2.00

2008                                                                       1.96

2009                                                                       1.86

2010                                                                       1.79

 

Borders went into bankruptcy in 2011 and the steady decline in their Z Score should have been a warning sign.

Every business owner should know their company’s Z score.  It’s easy to compute and  when monitored over time can be an insightful tool in assessing financial risk.

At Stevenson Valuation Group it’s standard practice to compute the Z Score for all client companies.  We’ve developed a template to facilitate the computation and would be happy to share it with you.

It’s FREE, just send us an e-mail.

Sincerely,

Thomas G Stevenson, CPA, CVA

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Private firms linger longer on the selling block

Dear Clients and Colleagues:

It’s taking longer for private companies to sell and this could have an impact on Marketability Discounts.

A newly updated analysis of data from BVR’s Pratt’s Stats reveals that the time needed to market and sell a privately held business is 211 days, up from 200 days in the previous analysis.

The latest annual update of an ongoing study, Marketing Period of Private Sales Transactions, examines a database of 7,928 private company sale transactions from BVR’s Pratt’s Stats database. The population of the transactions occurred from February 1992 through the end of 2011.

The business valuation concept of marketability deals with the liquidity of the ownership interest; that is how quickly and with what certainty an owner can convert an investment to cash. It is appropriate in the valuation of most privately held businesses to discount the total enterprise value for this lack of liquidity in order to arrive at the company’s fair market value.

The uncertainty involved with liquidity is reflected in business valuations by the Discount for Lack of Marketability (DLOM). The DLOM can be substantial, ranging at times from 30% – 40%, and many factors contribute independently to its determination.

At Stevenson Valuation Group we explore and have experience in analyzing the key contributors to Marketability. For more information, please contact us.

If you have any questions about this article, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Sincerely,

Thomas G Stevenson, CPA, CVA

Building Value is a Process–Part Three

Under the Income Approach to valuation, maximizing value becomes a function of increasing net cash flow , decreasing an investor’s perception of risk or a combination of both.  Last month we discussed various ways to increase net flow and this month we’ll review various ways to reduce investor’s risk.  In valuation terms, investor’s risk is also referred to as an investor’s required rate of return or, capitalization rate, and it is expressed as a percentage.

A key component in determining the value of a going concern is the strength and transferability of the business’ cash flow.  An investor is likely to pay more for a cash flow that’s predictable than one that is subject to various internal and/or external sources of risk. 

The general rule of thumb is “the lower the risk the higher the value.” 

Below is a sample of some of the factors we commonly consider when evaluating the strength and transferability of cash flow.       

·         Company operating history and volatility of cash flow

·         Depth and quality of management

·         Competition and barriers to entry

·         Access to capital resources

·         Reliance on key person(s)

·         Size and geographic diversification

·         Concentration in customer base

·         Market resources in light of competition

·         Purchasing power and other economies of scale

·         Product and market development resources

·         Technological obsolescence

·         Reliance on vendors

·         Distribution system

·         Financial reporting and controls

·         Long term contracts with customers or unique products or

            market niche

·         Patents, copyrights, franchise rights, proprietary products

·         Operating facilities and capital investment needs

·         Industry and economic conditions

Broadly speaking, capitalization rates range from 17% at the low risk end of the spectrum to over 30% at the high end of the spectrum.  

By working with management, Stevenson Valuation Group has, over time, assisted management in increasing value by enhancing the quality of the company’s cash flow.

Building Value is a Process–Part Three

Under the Income Approach to valuation, maximizing value becomes a function of increasing net cash flow , decreasing an investor’s perception of risk or a combination of both.  Last month we discussed various ways to increase net flow and this month we’ll review various ways to reduce investor’s risk.  In valuation terms, investor’s risk is also referred to as an investor’s required rate of return or, capitalization rate, and it is expressed as a percentage.

A key component in determining the value of a going concern is the strength and transferability of the business’ cash flow.  An investor is likely to pay more for a cash flow that’s predictable than one that is subject to various internal and/or external sources of risk. 

The general rule of thumb is “the lower the risk the higher the value.” 

Below is a sample of some of the factors we commonly consider when evaluating the strength and transferability of cash flow.       

·         Company operating history and volatility of cash flow

·         Depth and quality of management

·         Competition and barriers to entry

·         Access to capital resources

·         Reliance on key person(s)

·         Size and geographic diversification

·         Concentration in customer base

·         Market resources in light of competition

·         Purchasing power and other economies of scale

·         Product and market development resources

·         Technological obsolescence

·         Reliance on vendors

·         Distribution system

·         Financial reporting and controls

·         Long term contracts with customers or unique products or

            market niche

·         Patents, copyrights, franchise rights, proprietary products

·         Operating facilities and capital investment needs

·         Industry and economic conditions

Broadly speaking, capitalization rates range from 17% at the low risk end of the spectrum to over 30% at the high end of the spectrum.  

By working with management, Stevenson Valuation Group has, over time, assisted management in increasing value by enhancing the quality of the company’s cash flow.

Part Two: Building Value is a Process–Increase Net Cash Flow

Dear Clients and Colleagues:

Last month, I shared Part One in “Building Value Is a Process.”  We discussed the three principles of valuation and the three general approaches to valuation.  We concluded that for closely held companies, the Income Approach is often the preferred method of valuation.  Under the Income Approach, maximizing value becomes a function of increasing net cash flow, decreasing an investor’s perception of risk or a combination of both. 

This month, in Part Two, we’ll focus on various ways that Stevenson Valuation Group can help you, the business owner, increase net cash flow…

        Net cash flow is usually used as the measurement of owner benefit because it is net cash flow that is actually available to pay dividends. 

        The primary determinant of what a buyer will be willing to pay for a business is the future cash flow that the buyer expects to realize from the business.  In fact, the single most important factor in closing a sale is the buyer’s belief that future net cash flow will continue to grow, thereby, increasing the value of the business.

        To increase cash flow, Stevenson Valuation Group can help you focus your activities on cash management and profit maximizing techniques. Examples of some of those techniques follow: 

·         Create a cash flow forecast. 

            In essence, we’ll work with you to set goals equal to your definition of success and then back up your plans with achievable monetary benchmarks.

·         Collect accounts receivable fast. 

        The goal is for you to be the industry leader in collections. By decreasing your collection period can loosen up a surprising amount of cash.

·         Don’t over invest in inventory.

        We’ll help you analyze the movement of inventory with a focus on removing slow moving, cash consuming items.  And, we’ll  help you calculate the savings of reducing the your           Company’s average inventory days.

·         View disbursements as investments. 

        Having an outside view of expenditures helps identify disbursements not paying dividends. We can be that objective voice.

·         Maximize your gross margin percentage.

        Similar to the point above, cost of sales is an investment that is measured by your gross margin percentage.  Too often businesses accept the gross margin     percentage as an end result rather than managing it for a desired outcome.

·         Take care of your employees. 

        A well designed employee incentive plans improves productivity and cash flow.

·         Minimize taxes. 

        Stevenson Valuation Group will take the time to help you understand your basic tax framework and work with your tax advisor to minimize the tax impact of increasing your profit.

·         Invest in technology.

        If your Company is not using the latest and most efficient technology it is losing ground   in the market place and value is leaking out.

Of course, every business is different and the actual steps to improving the cash flow of your particular Company will be specific to your Company.  What’s outlined above are general ideas and should not be considered an all inclusive list.  Stevenson Valuation Group considers each client a unique opportunity requiring a tailor – made strategy for meeting specific goals. 

Please call me so we can discuss and set in motion a plan for you to maximize value.

Next month we’ll discuss how Stevenson Valuation Group can help you analyze and reduce an investor’s perception of risk and the impact of risk on your Company’s value.

If you have any questions about this blog, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Sincerely,

Thomas G Stevenson, CPA, CVA

Building Value Is A Process

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Building Value Is a Process

Part One of a three part series.

 Part One

The process of building value in a company starts with a basic understanding of how value is determined.

There are three appraisal principles that constitute the foundation of valuation theory. These principles are (1) the principle of alternatives, (2) the principle of substitution, and (3) the principle of future benefits.

The principle of alternatives states that in any contemplated transaction both buyer and seller have choices and do not necessarily need to enter or proceed with a proposed transaction.

The principle of substitution states that value tends to be determined by the cost of an equally desirable substitute. In other words, if two items are identical, except for price, a willing buyer will gravitate to the item with the lower price. Or, in terms of an investment, if two investments have equal risk an investor will invest in the item that provides the greatest return.

Finally, the principle of future benefits tells us that economic value reflects anticipated future benefits. Basically, there are three reasons that investors will invest in a certain stock: (1) dividends (future cash flows to the investor), (2) capital appreciation (future cash flows to the investor upon sale), or (3) a combination of the two.

Since there is no ready market for closely held stock, an experienced valuator, keeping in mind the three principles above, will analyze and examine a vast array of information before selecting an appropriate valuation method or methods. The valuation method selected will fall within three general approaches:

Asset Approach

Market Approach

Income Approach

 In the asset approach emphasis is placed on the current value of the assets less liabilities. It is typically used for companies with volatile or low earnings, holding companies, companies that will soon be liquidated and capital intensive operations. It does not provide a value for goodwill which must be computed separately if it exists.

The market approach employs the valuation principle of substitution. The substitution theory states that similar assets have similar values. Therefore, by comparing the subject company to other comparable companies a reasonable estimation of value is obtained. The market method is a highly regarded method for valuing a going concern because value is derived directly from the marketplace. However, finding suitable comparable companies is extremely difficult and often time consuming.

For profitable, non-public companies, the Income Approach is often favored. The income approach measures value based on the principle that the value of a business is equal to the present value of the future benefits of ownership. The benefits of ownership are most often expressed in terms of net cash flow. The present value factor is usually referred to as a capitalization or discount rate and is generally considered to be a measurement of investor risk expressed as a percentage.

The income approach employs a simple formula to determine value:

Value = Benefit/Risk

 Therefore, maximizing value is a function of increasing net cash flow, decreasing risk or a combination of both.

Next month, in Part Two of this article, we will discuss ways to increase cash flow and minimize investor risk.
Sincerely,

Thomas G Stevenson, CPA, CVA

Tax Court’s Adjustment to Reasonable Compensation ‘Dizzying and Arbitrary’

Menard v. Commissioner, 2009 WL 595587 (C. A. 7)(March 10, 2009)

The CEO of The Home Depot was paid $2.8 million in salary in 1998. The CEO of Lowe’s received $6.1 million (neither including bonus). Yet when the CEO of the nation’s third largest retail home improvement chain, Menards, posted roughly $20.6 million in salary (including bonus), the IRS stepped in and disallowed $19 million as a corporate deduction.

The reason: The IRS claimed that it was a disguised dividend.

The Tax Court applied a unique formula.

The CEO, John Menard, founded the Wisconsin-based Menards hardware stores in 1962. He worked six or  seven days a week, up to 16 hours a day, and was involved in every detail of company operations. Under his management, revenues grew from $788 million in 1991 to $3.4 billion in 1998. The company’s return on shareholder equity in 1998 was 18.8%. By contrast, Home Depot returned a 16.1% return on investment that year, and Lowe’s rate of return was lower.

Menard owned all the voting shares in the company and 56% of the non-voting shares. He was paid a  modest base salary and a portion of a profit-sharing plan; in 1998, he earned $157,500 and $3 million from these sources. A bonus program, adopted by the board of directors in 1973, for his “commanding” management role, awarded him an additional 5% of company earnings (before taxes) at the end of each year. In 1998, the 5% bonus yielded the CEO an additional $17.5 million, conditioned on the IRS allowing its deduction from corporate income.

At trial the IRS not only persuaded the Tax Court that the bulk of the CEO’s compensation was excessive, but that because it was conditional and paid at year’s-end, it was also intended as a dividend, especially since the company didn’t pay formal dividends to other shareholders.

As to the “excess”, the Tax Court found that any compensation above $7.1 million for Menard was too much. The court used its own unique formula to arrive at this conclusion:

  1. Divide Home Depot’s return on investment (16.1%) by its CEO’s salary ($2.84 million);
  2. Divide Menard’s return on investment (18.8%) by the result of step (1); and then
  3. Multiply the result ($3.32 million) by 2.13, or the ratio of the compensation of Lowe’s CEO to that of Home Depot’s CEO.

The appellate court considered the Tax Court’s formula an arbitrary and dizzying adjustment. It disregarded differences in the full compensation packages of the three executives being compared (the Home Depot CEO made more than $124 million
from 1998-2004) , differences in whatever challenges faced the companies in 1998, and differences in [their] responsibilities and performances (Menard was by far the most active, hard-working).

Not a concealed dividend.

The Tax Court ignored the substantial level of risk in Menard’s compensation structure, given its direct tie to company earnings. Not to mention the fact that the 5% bonus program had been in place for 25 years before the IRS “pounced,” the court said. It did not look like a dividend, because corporate dividends are generally tied to specific dollar amounts and do not serve the same incentive purpose to the passive shareholder.

The Seventh Circuit reversed the Tax Court’s decision.

The Importance of Valuing Your Business

Dear Clients and Colleagues:

The following article was written by Steve Parrish of Forbes Magazine, August 14, 2012 edition. I think you’ll find it interesting and enjoyable.

Sincerely,

Thomas G Stevenson, CPA, CVA

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IF YOU VALUE YOUR BUSINESS,

YOU SHOULD VALUE YOUR BUSINESS

At this year’s Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Warren Buffett made a key point all business owners should pay attention to:

“If business schools could offer just one course, it would not be on stock trading, the efficient market hypothesis or modern portfolio theory. Rather, B-schools should be encouraging students to learn the boring, but critically important, discipline of business valuation.”

If you already own a business, why would you need this skill? You’d need it only if any of the following apply:

  •  You may someday retire, sell, or leave your business.
  • You might die or become disabled.
  • You have key employees or partners whom you’re trying to motivate to be more efficient, productive or otherwise profitable.
  • Creditors, predators, or soon-to-be ex-spouses may someday want a piece of your business.

If none of these applies, carry on with your business … after you seek psychological counseling. If some of these do apply, however, consider having your business valued. And, as the Oracle of Omaha stated, learn something about the process yourself. Just because your lawyer drafts your will doesn’t mean you shouldn’t know something about wills, and even though your accountant does your books, you still need to understand financial principles. The same applies to the valuing of your firm. Business valuation is a process done by professionals, but it’s a product the business owner needs to understand.

Valuing a privately held business can be complex, but the overall process can be simply explained. A standard — what I’ll call “baseline” — business valuation seeks to address three basic questions:

What is the value of the business’s assets?

  1. What is the value to an outside party of the firm’s ongoing business (for example: revenues, profits or brand)?
  2. What does the current market look like for similar businesses (comparable sales, what banks are lending on, etc.)?

A business valuation is an amalgam of answers to the above questions. And the valuation will typically be unique to each business, sector and industry.  Consider three simple examples: a farm, a dental practice, and an online retailer.

With a farm, the assets are a primary consideration. How many acres, what farm machinery is in the operation, and what loans are there? Because the end product — the crop — is a commodity, differentiation between one farm and another is difficult to achieve. So a valuation would look at the hard assets, see what other acreage in the area is selling for, and from these answers, a baseline valuation could be created.

A dental practice involves a combination of earnings and assets intrinsic in the valuation. The practice includes hard assets like chairs and x-ray machines, but it also has a customer base that religiously returns every six months for a cleaning. So a valuation would hone in on the historical profit of the practice and try to project forward how large and loyal the customer base is. The valuation would seek to answer the question: how many months or years of profits could a purchasing dental firm expect to yield from the practice? A look at comparable dental practices in the geographic region would help further refine the process. Add in the value of the hard assets, and — voila! — you have a baseline valuation.

The valuation of an online retailer may be more challenging, but manageable.  Beyond any inventory the retailer owns, the hard assets may be few.  But there are likely two other asset types that need to be considered. One is the kind that goes home at night: the employees who buy, market, and service the accounts. The other asset is the online brand the company has created.

Would an independent buyer find value in leveraging the business’s online presence and reputation?  Finding comparable businesses that sell in cyberspace offers fewer historical examples than farms or dental practices, but a positive feature is that the value of an online business is less likely to be geographically affected. The baseline valuation for an online retailer will probably include the inventory and a capitalization of earnings, revenues, and whatever other key metric is used to value such a business. For example, the business’s growth trend is likely to be a key measure in this kind of industry.

Taking this baseline valuation and massaging it to recognize the unique features of the business, the reason for the valuation, and the timing may that apply is a topic for future articles. But the message is still simple: A business owner should have the business valued, and should understand the principles of the valuation. It seems to have worked well for Warren.

 

Experts in Court Round-up

Dear Friends,

In many cases, the need for a valuation expert is obvious and inescapable, which raises the question of how to choose and use an expert to the best advantage for a legal argument. Recent case law offers some tips in answer to this question.

It doesn’t pay to skimp.

In Villaje del Rio, Ltd. V. Colina, L.P., 2009 WL 1606431 (W.D. Tex.) (June 8, 2009), the developer/plaintiff tried to cut costs by designating himself an expert to testify in regards to the value of his own real estate project, and supplemented his own with two experts’ testimony, based on appraisals they prepared in connection with the project’s financing, two years prior to the insolvency at issue. The court struck the appraisal experts for their failure to consider the relevant facts and data of the actual insolvency, and the plaintiff as well, saying, “lay testimony results from a process of reasoning familiar in everyday life, while expert testimony results from a process of reasoning which can be mastered only by specialists in the field.”

A cost efficient compromise.

Although a plaintiff often has no choice but to present an expert, the defendant may have other options. In Sossikian v. Ennis, 2009 WL 2106106 (Cal. App. 1 Dist.) (July 16, 2009) (unpublished), the defendant found an ideal solution, by using an expert for rebuttal purposes only to discredit the damages evidence offered by the plaintiff’s expert. This choice left the jury with no basis for a damages award and they awarded $42,182 on the plaintiff’s $800,000 claim.

Who is qualified?

When you make the decision to incur the cost of an expert, you want to make sure it’s the right one. In MDG Internat’l v. Australian Gold, Inc., 2009 WL 1916728 (S.D. Ind.) (June 29, 2009), an otherwise “supremely qualified” expert failed to satisfy the requirements of the Federal Rules of Evidence and Daubert. The expert, a professor of accounting and chair of an accredited MBA program deeply experienced in valuing public companies, was engaged to value a private company. The court concluded that he lacked the requisite “knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education” to testify regarding the value of the closely held business at issue, and went on to find that the expert’s opinions and methodologies were riddled with deficiencies. “Expert” is not broadly defined. It is critical to engage someone experienced in the particular issue of the case.

Of course, there are always outlier situations.

Chick-Fil-A v. CFT Development, LLC, 2009 WL 1754058 (M.D. Fla.) (June 18, 2009) is one such case. At issue was whether Panda Express (the defendant), which was proposed to be built next to a Chick-Fil-A, would derive 25% or more of its gross sales from the sale of chicken (and thus be enjoined from opening under a restrictive covenant on the property). The plaintiff’s and defendant’s experts proposed alternative methods of calculating the 25%, and both parties filed Daubert motions, claiming the other’s expert was unreliable or irrelevant. In the absence of any precedents (legal or accounting) on how to calculate the percentage of sales from chicken (for example, does it include non-chicken ingredients in a chicken dish?), the court permitted both experts to testify, saying that “the certainty and correctness will be tested through cross-examination and presentation of contrary evidence.”

Not all experts face the Daubert test.

Certain states continue to use a hybrid of that new federal rule and their own standard, based on the so-called Frye rule (from Frye v. United States, 54 App. D.C. 46 (1923)), even though Daubert overruled that case. The Frye test requires that an expert’s opinion derive from a principle that is “sufficiently established to have gained general acceptance in the particular field in which it belongs.” This was the test used by the court in 8000 Maryland LLC v. Huntleigh Financial Services, Inc., 2009 WL 2144895 (Mo. App. E.D.) (July 21, 2009). There the court of appeals affirmed that the plaintiff’s expert, a CPA/ABV, ASA, CVA with a master’s degree in finance and twenty-five years experience valuing public and private companies, had based her conclusions on facts and data reasonably relied on by similar experts.

Watch your expert’s language.

You’ve hired an expert. They’ve passed the hurdle of court acceptance. They give their opinion. It goes without saying (or does it?) that that opinion needs to be powerful, well presented, and not based on speculation. In Lucent Technologies, Inc. v. Gateway, Inc., 2009 WL 2902044 (C.A. Fed.) (Sept. 11, 2009), the plaintiff’s expert’s patent damages calculation, which resulted in a jury award of $358 million, was thrown out (and the jury award reversed), based largely on the expert’s testimony that to calculate a lump-sum amount (of damages), the parties might start by looking at the running royalty “and then speculating as to the extent of the future use” (emphasis by court). Perhaps it was semantics, (the expert might just as easily have said “estimate”), but the court held that what it dubbed the “lump sum speculation theory” improperly suggested guesswork, not rigorous analysis. The court went on to bolster its decision, finding that the expert’s comparables had no probative value, as the technology at issue was unique and difficult to compare meaningfully.

The bottom line: it pays to hire an expert, but be sure it’s the right expert doing the best job possible.